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The viscoelastic fluid flow model across a porous medium has captivated the interest of many contemporary researchers due to its industrial and technical uses, such as food processing, paper and textile coating, packed bed reactors, the cooling effect of transpiration and the dispersion of pollutants through aquifers. This article focuses on the influence of variable viscosity and viscoelasticity on the magnetohydrodynamic oscillatory flow of second-order fluid through thermally radiating wavy walls. A mathematical model for this fluid flow, including governing equations and boundary conditions, is developed using the usual Boussinesq approximation. The governing equations are transformed into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using non-similarity transformations. The numerical results obtained by applying finite-difference code based on the Lobatto IIIa formula generated by bvp4c solver are compared to the semi-analytical solutions for the velocity, temperature and concentration profiles obtained using the homotopy perturbation method (HPM). The effect of flow parameters on velocity, temperature, concentration profiles, skin friction coefficient, heat and mass transfer rate, and skin friction coefficient is examined and illustrated graphically. The physical parameters governing the fluid flow profoundly affected the resultant flow profiles except in a few cases. By using the slope linear regression method, the importance of considering the viscosity variation parameter and its interaction with the Lorentz force in determining the velocity behavior of the viscoelastic fluid model is highlighted. The percentage increase in the velocity profile of the viscoelastic model has been calculated for different ranges of viscosity variation parameters. Finally, the results are validated numerically for the skin friction coefficient and Nusselt number profiles.

The viscoelastic fluid flow model across a porous medium has captivated the interest of many contemporary researchers due to its industrial and technical uses, such as food processing, paper and textile coating, packed bed reactors, the cooling effect of transpiration and the dispersion of pollutants through aquifers. This article focuses on the influence of variable viscosity and viscoelasticity on the magnetohydrodynamic oscillatory flow of second-order fluid through thermally radiating wavy walls. A mathematical model for this fluid flow, including governing equations and boundary conditions, is developed using the usual Boussinesq approximation. The governing equations are transformed into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using non-similarity transformations. The numerical results obtained by applying finite-difference code based on the Lobatto IIIa formula generated by bvp4c solver are compared to the semi-analytical solutions for the velocity, temperature and concentration profiles obtained using the homotopy perturbation method (HPM). The effect of flow parameters on velocity, temperature, concentration profiles, skin friction coefficient, heat and mass transfer rate, and skin friction coefficient is examined and illustrated graphically. The physical parameters governing the fluid flow profoundly affected the resultant flow profiles except in a few cases. By using the slope linear regression method, the importance of considering the viscosity variation parameter and its interaction with the Lorentz force in determining the velocity behavior of the viscoelastic fluid model is highlighted. The percentage increase in the velocity profile of the viscoelastic model has been calculated for different ranges of viscosity variation parameters. Finally, the results are validated numerically for the skin friction coefficient and Nusselt number profiles.

Coffee berry disease (CBD), resulting from the Colletotrichum kahawae fungal pathogen, poses a severe risk to coffee crops worldwide. Focused on coffee berries, it triggers substantial economic losses in regions relying heavily on coffee cultivation. The devastating impact extends beyond agricultural losses, affecting livelihoods and trade economies. Experimental insights into coffee berry disease provide crucial information on its pathogenesis, progression, and potential mitigation strategies for control, offering valuable knowledge to safeguard the global coffee industry. In this paper, we investigated the mathematical model of coffee berry disease, with a focus on the dynamics of the coffee plant and Colletotrichum kahawae pathogen populations, categorized as susceptible, exposed, infected, pathogenic, and recovered (SEIPR) individuals. To address the system of nonlinear differential equations and obtain semi-analytical solution for the coffee berry disease model, a novel analytical approach combining the Shehu transformation, Akbari – Ganji, and Pade approximation method (SAGPM) was utilized. A comparison of analytical results with numerical simulations demonstrates that the novel SAGPM is excellent efficiency and accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the coffee berry disease model examines the effects of all parameters on the basic reproduction number $R_0$. Moreover, in order to examine the behavior of the model individuals, we varied some parameters in CBD. Through this analysis, we obtained valuable insights into the responses of the coffee berry disease model under various conditions and scenarios. This research offers valuable insights into the utilization of SAGPM and sensitivity analysis for analyzing epidemiological models, providing significant utility for researchers in the field.

Coffee berry disease (CBD), resulting from the Colletotrichum kahawae fungal pathogen, poses a severe risk to coffee crops worldwide. Focused on coffee berries, it triggers substantial economic losses in regions relying heavily on coffee cultivation. The devastating impact extends beyond agricultural losses, affecting livelihoods and trade economies. Experimental insights into coffee berry disease provide crucial information on its pathogenesis, progression, and potential mitigation strategies for control, offering valuable knowledge to safeguard the global coffee industry. In this paper, we investigated the mathematical model of coffee berry disease, with a focus on the dynamics of the coffee plant and Colletotrichum kahawae pathogen populations, categorized as susceptible, exposed, infected, pathogenic, and recovered (SEIPR) individuals. To address the system of nonlinear differential equations and obtain semi-analytical solution for the coffee berry disease model, a novel analytical approach combining the Shehu transformation, Akbari – Ganji, and Pade approximation method (SAGPM) was utilized. A comparison of analytical results with numerical simulations demonstrates that the novel SAGPM is excellent efficiency and accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the coffee berry disease model examines the effects of all parameters on the basic reproduction number $R_0$. Moreover, in order to examine the behavior of the model individuals, we varied some parameters in CBD. Through this analysis, we obtained valuable insights into the responses of the coffee berry disease model under various conditions and scenarios. This research offers valuable insights into the utilization of SAGPM and sensitivity analysis for analyzing epidemiological models, providing significant utility for researchers in the field.

Данная работа посвящена исследованию проблемы моделирования и анализа динамических режимов, как регулярных, так и хаотических, в системах связанных популяций в присутствии случайных возмущений. В качестве исходной детерминированной популяционной модели рассматривается дискретная модель Рикера. В работе исследуется динамика двух популяций, связанных миграцией. Миграция пропорциональна разнице между плотностями двух популяций с коэффициентом связи, который отвечает за силу миграционного потока. Изолированные популяционные подсистемы, не учитывающие миграцию и моделируемые отображением Рикера, демонстрируют различные динамические режимы: равновесный, периодический и хаотический. В данной работе в качестве бифуркационного параметра используется коэффициент связи, а также фиксируются параметры естественного прироста популяций, при которых одна изп одсистем находится в равновесном режиме, а во второй преобладает хаотический режим. Связывание двух популяций посредством миграции порождает новые динамические режимы, не наблюдавшиеся в изолированной модели. Целью данной статьи является анализ динамических режимов корпоративной динамики при вариации интенсивности перетоков между популяционными подсистемами. В статье представлен бифуркационный анализа ттракторов детерминированной модели двух связанных популяций, выявлены зоны моно- и бистабильности, даны примеры регулярных и хаотических аттракторов. Основной акцент данной работы сделан на сравнении устойчивости динамических режимов к случайным возмущениям в коэффициенте интенсивности миграции. Методами прямого численного моделирования выявлены и описаны индуцированные шумом переходы с периодического аттрактора на хаотический. В статье представлены результаты анализа стохастических явлений с помощью показателя Ляпунова. Показано, что в рассматриваемой модели существует зона изменения бифуркационного параметра, при котором даже с увеличением интенсивности случайных возмущений не происходит переход от порядка к хаосу. Для аналитического исследования вызванных шумом переходов применены техника функции стохастической чувствительности и метод доверительных областей. В работе показано, как с помощью этого математического аппарата можно предсказать критическую интенсивность шума, вызывающую трансформацию периодического режима в хаотический.

This paper focuses on the problem of modeling and analyzing dynamic regimes, both regular and chaotic, in systems of coupled populations in the presence of random disturbances. The discrete Ricker model is used as the initial deterministic population model. The paper examines the dynamics of two populations coupled by migration. Migration is proportional to the difference between the densities of two populations with a coupling coefficient responsible for the strength of the migration flow. Isolated population subsystems, modeled by the Ricker map, exhibit various dynamic modes, including equilibrium, periodic, and chaotic ones. In this study, the coupling coefficient is treated as a bifurcation parameter and the parameters of natural population growth rate remain fixed. Under these conditions, one subsystem is in the equilibrium mode, while the other exhibits chaotic behavior. The coupling of two populations through migration creates new dynamic regimes, which were not observed in the isolated model. This article aims to analyze the dynamics of corporate systems with variations in the flow intensity between population subsystems. The article presents a bifurcation analysis of the attractors in a deterministic model of two coupled populations, identifies zones of monostability and bistability, and gives examples of regular and chaotic attractors. The main focus of the work is in comparing the stability of dynamic regimes against random disturbances in the migration intensity. Noise-induced transitions from a periodic attractor to a chaotic attractor are identified and described using direct numerical simulation methods. The Lyapunov exponents are used to analyze stochastic phenomena. It has been shown that in this model, there is a region of change in the bifurcation parameter in which, even with an increase in the intensity of random perturbations, there is no transition from order to chaos. For the analytical study of noise-induced transitions, the stochastic sensitivity function technique and the confidence domain method are used. The paper demonstrates how this mathematical tool can be employed to predict the critical noise intensity that causes a periodic regime to transform into a chaotic one.

Eco-epidemiological models provide insights into factors influencing disease transmission and host population stability. This study developed two eco-epidemiological models to investigate the impacts of prey refuge availability and an Allee effect on dynamics. Model A incorporated these mechanisms, while model B did not. Both models featured predator – prey and disease transmission and were analyzed mathematically and via simulation. Model equilibrium states were examined locally and globally under differing parameter combinations representative of environmental scenarios. Model A and B demonstrated globally stable conditions within certain parameter ranges, signalling refuge and Allee effect terms promote robustness. Moreover, model A showed a higher potential toward extinction of the species as a result of incorporating the Allee effect. Bifurcation analyses revealed qualitative shifts in behavior triggered by modifications like altered predation mortality. Model A manifested a transcritical bifurcation indicating critical population thresholds. Additional bifurcation types were noticed when refuge and Allee stabilizing impacts were absent in model B. Findings showed disease crowding effect and that host persistence is positively associated with refuge habitat, reducing predator – prey encounters. The Allee effect also calibrated stability via heightened sensitivity to small groups. Simulations aligned with mathematical predictions. Model A underwent bifurcations at critical predator death rates impacting prey outcomes. This work provides a valuable framework to minimize transmission given resource availability or demographic alterations, generating testable hypotheses.

Eco-epidemiological models provide insights into factors influencing disease transmission and host population stability. This study developed two eco-epidemiological models to investigate the impacts of prey refuge availability and an Allee effect on dynamics. Model A incorporated these mechanisms, while model B did not. Both models featured predator – prey and disease transmission and were analyzed mathematically and via simulation. Model equilibrium states were examined locally and globally under differing parameter combinations representative of environmental scenarios. Model A and B demonstrated globally stable conditions within certain parameter ranges, signalling refuge and Allee effect terms promote robustness. Moreover, model A showed a higher potential toward extinction of the species as a result of incorporating the Allee effect. Bifurcation analyses revealed qualitative shifts in behavior triggered by modifications like altered predation mortality. Model A manifested a transcritical bifurcation indicating critical population thresholds. Additional bifurcation types were noticed when refuge and Allee stabilizing impacts were absent in model B. Findings showed disease crowding effect and that host persistence is positively associated with refuge habitat, reducing predator – prey encounters. The Allee effect also calibrated stability via heightened sensitivity to small groups. Simulations aligned with mathematical predictions. Model A underwent bifurcations at critical predator death rates impacting prey outcomes. This work provides a valuable framework to minimize transmission given resource availability or demographic alterations, generating testable hypotheses.

В работе рассмотрены проблемы математического описания деонтологических аспектов, влияющих на поведение ЛПР (лиц, принимающих решения). Предложена методология соотнесения утилитарных (материальных) и деонтологических (ценностных) аспектов при принятии ими решений с учетом их психологических особенностей. Предложена математическая модель совместного учета утилитарных и деонтологических факторов при принятии ЛПР решений в различных ситуациях. Выявлены некоторые закономерности, связанные с этим учетом, приведено их формальное описание. Модель показывает, что существует тенденция постепенного снижения уровня деонтологичности в оценке альтернатив при принятии решений (по сравнению с тем, к чему склоняет внешний мир) к большей утилитарности. Эта тенденция с течением времени начинает влиять на общественное мнение и на отношение общества к моральным нормам, постепенно снижая общий уровень моральности в обществе. Остановить этот процесс можно только путем постоянного и целенаправленного поддержания обществом и государством высокого уровня деонтологичности (идеологическая работа, пропаганда традиционных ценностей, воспитательная работа в школе и т. п.), в противном случае общество с неизбежностью со временем станет утилитарным, ориентирующимся при принятии решений исключительно на материальные факторы.

В дальнейшем планируется использовать разработанный инструментарий для анализа конкретных ситуаций, в том числе для анализа закономерностей цивилизационных циклов: взлета и падения Римской империи, СССР, современной западной цивилизации.

The paper considers the problems of mathematical description of deontological aspects influencing the behavior of decision makers. A methodology is proposed for correlating utilitarian (material) and deontological (value) aspects in their decision-making, taking into account their psychological characteristics. A mathematical model is proposed for the joint consideration of utilitarian and deontological factors in decision-making in various situations. Some patterns related to this consideration are identified, and their formal description is given. The model shows that there is a tendency for a gradual decrease in the level of deontology in evaluating alternatives when making decisions (compared to what the outside world inclines to) towards greater utilitarianism. Over time, this trend begins to influence public opinion and society’s attitude to moral norms, gradually reducing the overall level of morality in society. This process can be stopped only by constantly and purposefully maintaining a high level of deontology by society and the state (ideological work, promotion of traditional values, educational work at school, etc.), otherwise society will inevitably become utilitarian over time, focusing exclusively on material factors when making decisions.

In the future, it is planned to use the developed tools for analyzing specific situations, including for analyzing the patterns of civilizational cycles: the rise and fall of the Roman Empire, the USSR, and modern Western civilization).

Представлена физико-математическая модель сушки угольных частиц в потоке газа и результаты расчета сушки частиц бурого угля в сушильной трубе. Показано, что для сушки угля может быть использован перегретый водяной пар. Предложена термодинамическая модель сушки частиц в сушильной трубе. Она позволяет провести предварительную оценку параметров процесса сушки.

Physical-mathematical model of drying of coal particles in the gas stream and the results of calculating the drying of the particles of brown coal in a drying tube are presented. It is shown that for the drying of coal can be used superheated water vapor. Thermodynamic model of drying of a particle in a drying tube are proposed. It allows to conduct a preliminary assessment of parameters of drying process.

На основе математическоймо дели динамики биомасс фитопланктона построен способ оценки содержания хлорофилла в районе моря с учетом его распределения по глубине. Модель построена на основе уравнения «реакция-диффузия», учитывает основные влияющие факторы: минеральное питание, освещенность и температуру. Используется спутниковая информация о поверхностном слое моря. Приведен пример расчетов для залива Петра Великого (Японское море).

A model, describing the influence of external factors on temporal evolution of phytoplankton distribution in a horizontally-homogenous water layer, is presented. This model is based upon the reactiondiffusion equation and takes into account the main factors of influence: mineral nutrients, insolation and temperature. The mineral nutrients and insolation act oppositely on spatial phytoplankton distribution. The results of numerical modeling are presented and the prospect of applying this model to reconstruction of phytoplankton distribution from sea-surface satellite data is discussed. The model was used to estimate the chlorophyll content of the Peter the Great Bay (Sea of Japan).

Проведен сравнительный анализ двух моделей пористой среды (Дарси и Бринкмана) на примере математического моделирования нестационарных режимов термогравитационной конвекции в пористой вертикальной цилиндрической полости с теплопроводной оболочкой конечной толщины в условиях конвективного охлаждения со стороны окружающей среды. Краевая задача математической физики, сформулированная в безразмерных переменных «функция тока — завихренность — температура», реализована численно неявным методом конечных разностей. Представлены результаты тестовых расчетов и влияния сеточных параметров, отражающие правомерность применения предлагаемого численного подхода. Установлены особенности класса сопряженных задач при использовании рассматриваемых моделей пористой среды.

Comparative analysis of two models of porous medium (Dacry and Brinkman) on an example of mathematical simulation of transient natural convection in a porous vertical cylindrical cavity with heat-conducting shell of finite thickness in conditions of convective cooling from an environment has been carried out. The boundary-value problem of mathematical physics formulated in dimensionless variables such as stream function, vorticity and temperature has been solved by implicit finite difference method. The presented verification results validate used numerical approach and also confirm that the solution is not dependent on the mesh size. Features of the conjugate heat transfer problems with considered models of porous medium have been determined.

Разработана гибкая программная система моделирования процесса получения рукавных полимерных пленок методом экструзии с раздувом, включающая библиотеку математических моделей процессов экструзии и формообразования пленочного рукава, подсистемы перенастройки на новый тип пленки и исследования процессов экструзии и формообразования для управления качеством пленки в режиме ее изготовления. Подсистема перенастройки позволяет выбрать оборудование экструзионной линии по технико-экономическим показателям, синтезировать 3D-модель линии и сформировать регламентные диапазоны управляющих воздействий для заданного типа пленки. Подсистема исследования позволяет рассчитать температурные профили нагрева и охлаждения материала, геометрические и оптические характеристики пленки в зависимости от управляющих воздействий на стадиях экструзии и формообразования и выбрать значения управляющих воздействий, обеспечивающие заданное качество пленки.

Flexible software for modeling polymeric film production by use of blown extrusion has been developed. It consists of library of mathematical models for extrusion and forming blown film, sub-system for changeover to new type of film and sub-system for investigation of extrusion and forming for film quality control under film production. The sub-system for changeover allows to choose the equipment of extrusion line on technical and economic indices, to synthesize 3D model of the line and to generate regulation ranges of regime parameters for given type of film. The sub-system for investigation allows to calculate temperature profiles of heating and cooling material, geometrical and optical characteristics of film depending on regime parameters for stages of extrusion and forming and to evaluate regime parameters ensuring given quality of polymeric film.

Статья посвящена созданию математического управления процессами вложения средств банка в его деятельность. Весь процесс построения оптимального управления можно разбить на две составляющие: первая, выявление функций, описывающих движение ликвидного капитала в банке, и вторая, использование полученных функций в схеме динамического программирования. Прежде эта задача была рассмотрена в статье «Оптимальное управление вложением средств банка как фактор экономической стабильности» в № 4 за 2012 год. В существующей статье рассмотрена модификация этого решения, в частности, вводится дополнительная функция реинвестирования ℜ(φ), где φ — это приток ликвидных средств от предшествующего шага.

Article is devoted to the creation of a mathematical control of the bank investment process. The whole process of building optimal control may be divided into two components: in the first place, there is the identification of the functions describing the liquid capital movement in the bank and, in the second place, the use of these functions in the scheme of dynamic programming. Before this problem was discussed in the article "Optimal control of the bank investment as a factor of economic stability" in the 4^th issue for 2012. In the present article considers this modification of the solution, in particular, we use ℜ(φ) as a function of reinvestment, where φ is inflow of liquid capital realized at the previous step of control.