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The dynamics of monkeypox transmission with an optimal vaccination strategy through a mathematical modelling approach

Zevika M.Z., Triska A.T., Puspita J.W.
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Monkeypox is a disease reemerging in 2022 which is caused by the monkeypox virus (MPV). This disease can be transmitted not only from rodents to humans, but also from humans to other humans, and even from the environment to humans. In this work, we propose a mathematical model to capture the dynamics of monkeypox transmission which involve three modes of transmission, namely, from rodents to rodents, rodents to humans, and from humans to other humans. In addition to the basic reproduction number, we investigate the stability of all equilibrium points analytically, including an implicit endemic equilibrium by applying the center manifold theorem. Moreover, the vaccination as an alternative solution to eradicate the monkeypox transmission is discussed and solved as an optimal control problem. The results of this study show that the transmission of monkeypox is directly affected by the internal infection rates of each population, i. e., the infection rate of the susceptible human by an infected human and the infection rate of the susceptible rodent by an infected rodent. Furthermore, the external infection rates, i. e., the infection rate of the susceptible human by an infected rodent also affects the transmission of monkeypox although it does not affect the basic reproduction number directly.

Ключевые слова: SEIR-SEIR model, monkeypox, vaccination, optimal control, forward bifurcation
Цитата: Zevika M.Z., Triska A.T., Puspita J.W. The dynamics of monkeypox transmission with an optimal vaccination strategy through a mathematical modelling approach // Компьютерные исследования и моделирование, 2023, т. 15, № 6, с. 1635-1651
Citation in English: Zevika M.Z., Triska A.T., Puspita J.W. The dynamics of monkeypox transmission with an optimal vaccination strategy through a mathematical modelling approach // Computer Research and Modeling, 2023, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 1635-1651
DOI: 10.20537/2076-7633-2023-15-6-1635-1651
URL: http://crm.ics.org.ru/journal/article/3416/
Creative Commons License Статья доступна по лицензии Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.

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